Small changes of LBC => big changes in projection line

I have received this question in February 2009: Why does the projection line change so much in the Composite module when I change the Learning Border Cursor position only a bit?  

I wanted to answer immediately. But I decided to wait a bit; you will see why. So, now (the end of April) when the drop is over (I hope), we can discuss it.

The answer is very simple - we are living in some special time now. 

Look at Dow in January-February 2009:

Within next 2 months DOW has lost practically 30% of its value.

If you look at the price chart, you will find that such big movements are very untypical for Dow and they have happened at really dramatic moments of stock market history (September 2008, 2002, 2001, 1987 years). The average movement of Dow within 2 months is usually around 10%. Thus when the expected value of  Dow change within 2 months is about 10%, while the current changes are much bigger, the program reproduces this increased effect to the projection line proportionally. 

The only thing I can recommend to do in this extreme case is decreasing the emphasize parameter in Composite module:

If you use "by default" option (200% emphasize), the program assigns more weight to the last cycle, thus the effect of 30% two months drop will be increased significantly. Decreasing emphasize parameter eliminates this effect.