Basic astronomical cycles for traders
written by Sergey Tarassov
Very often Timing Solution users ask me about astronomical cycles. These users come from Technical Analysis side and show interest to astronomical (or astro) cycles. Definitely, there is a lot of information regarding these cycles in the Internet. However, it takes time and significant effort to find the right information, learn it and figure out how to apply it for trading. I hope that this small article will give you enough explanation regarding these astronomy based cycles. I want to emphasize the most important astro cycles, important from my point of view. When you get used to them, you may become interested enough to continue your own search of information. You will want to do that as Timing Solution software allows to use many different astro cycles, not only to use, but verify these cycles.
The cycles are described below. I will provide a short explanation of the cycle and show how to set the parameters in the software.
Sun seasonal/Annual cycle, period 365.25 days
The first one, and the most important object in the sky is the Sun. The Earth makes the full cycle around the Sun within 365.25 days; this is the seasonal or Annual cycle, a very important cycle that I always recommend to consider first.
To calculate the Annual cycle with Timing Solution, run Composite module ("Astronomy" button) and set this option:
Immediately in the Main screen you will see the projection line based on the Annual cycle.
Moon based cycles:
Moon cycles are very important for the stock market. It may be because the periods of these cycles are close to the ideal four weeks trading cycle. So I recommend always to check the Moon cycles one-by-one. To evaluate the importance/non importance of these cycles, you can apply Walk Forward Analysis method by clicking this button in the Composite module:
Moon synodic cycle (Moon phases), period 29.53 days
This is another one very important cycle. Everybody knows this cycle as the cycle between two New Moons (or Full Moons). It shows how the price is changed between two New Moons. Technically this cycle is calculated as an angle separation between ecliptic longitudes of the Moon and the Sun. When these objects have the same longitude (it is called. conjunction), the New Moon takes place. When this angle separation reaches 180 degrees, the Full Moon takes place.
If you prefer the visual illustration of the Moon phases, you can find it on the website http://www.moonconnection.com/moon_phases.phtml
Moon Tropical cycle, period 27.32 days
This is the cycle that reflects the Moon movement through Ecliptic. Timing Solution software allows to create a composite diagram that shows the typical movement of DJIA (or any financial instrument) while the Moon passes different signs of Zodiac:
And this is a projection line based on this cycle:
Moon Draconic cycle, period 27.21 days
This cycle reflects the Moon movement regarding the Moon North Node (which is the intersection of Ecliptic and the Moon's orbit). This cycle correlates with eclipses. You can find out more regarding this subject on the website http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Month:
Because the moon's orbit is inclined with respect to the ecliptic, the sun, moon, and earth are in line only when the moon is at one of the nodes. Whenever this happens a solar or lunar eclipse is possible. The name "draconic" refers to a mythical dragon, said to live in the nodes and eat the sun or moon during an eclipse.
Moon anomalistic cycle, period 27.55 days
This cycle reflects the Moon movement regarding the perigee point - the point where the distance between the Moon and the Earth reaches its minimum (i.e., it is the closest distance to the Earth).
In our research, we often use the cycles in Heliocentric system.
Mercury heliocentric cycle, period 87.97 days
This cycle shows the movement of Mercury around the Sun. Mercury is the closest to the Sun planet, so the period of this cycle is the smallest - 88 days only.
Venus cycle, period 224.70 days
Inner planets (Mercury and Venus) have phases similar to Moon phases. These cycles are called also synodic cycle; so, when you read "Mercury phases cycle", this is the same thing as Mercury synodic cycle.
As an example, let us consider Venus synodic cycle. Technically speaking, this is a cycle between two inferior conjunctions (helicentric system). Look at this picture from Cornell University's website ( http://www.astro.cornell.edu/academics/courses/astro201/planet_view.htm ):
Inferior conjunction here is like the New Moon - New Venus. Superior conjunction is like the Full Moon - Full Venus (maximum illuminated by the Sun).
I believe that for stock market forecasting Venus synodic cycle is quite important, especially for currencies. This cycle works not always. The picture below shows how well it worked for Euro in 2010-2011:
and since 2012 it stopped working:
Mercury synodic cycle is enigma for me: it appears suddenly. works for 2-3 months and after that suddenly disappears. Look at it in the year 2011:
Here is a practical recommendation regarding Mercury synodic cycle: if you plan to use it, start with calculating spectrum ("Spectrum" button). If there is a strong peak around 116 days (which is Mercury synodic cycle period), it means that this cycle is active now and we can calculate Composite model based on this cycle, like this one (there is a strong cycle with period 119 days here):
To calculate Mercury/Venus cycles, set these parameters in Composite module:
Mercury synodic cycle, period 115.88 days
Venus synodic cycle, period 583.92 days
Pay attention to the Sun glyph . In heliocentric system it means the Earth. In other words Venus synodic cycle is actually Venus-Earth angle separation in heliocentric coordinates.
And the last note regarding standard cycles: you can quickly create standard cycles in the Composite module clicking this button and highlighting the appropriate menu item:
November 5, 2013