Annual Cycles for the year 2007 (DJI, Crude Oil, S&P 500, Euro/USD)
Here we present the annual cycles for different financial instruments calculated with Timing Solution software. For every financial instrument, we have created a diagram that represents a bunch of projection lines based on annual cycles. The difference between them is the base interval used to calculate the projection line. Look at this example for Dow Jones Industrial index:
The red line here represents the annual cycle calculated for the smallest market "memory", which is just 2 years of price history; on the contrary, the blue line represents the annual cycle for DJI based on all available 20 years of history data for this index. In other words, to calculate the red line (the seasonal line) we use the latest 2 years of price history, while to calculate the blue line we use the last 20 years. Thus this technique (so called "committee") shows you the latest tendency and the general tendency together. Also there is one more thin line that is calculated on the last 10 years of price history.
We did a similar forecast for the year 2006. Let look together at the seasonal patterns that did not work in 2006. Here they are:
June turning point. Typically the DJI reaches the top in the beginning of June. In 2006, it was a bottom
Especially strong and unexpected break of the pattern has occurred in the end of September. Usually, DJI has a bottom at that time. In 2006, it did not happen. This is a very strong pattern, and it has not been revealed in 2006.
Please keep your eye on these dates - the beginning of June and the end of September. It is possible that some new pattern for DJI starts these years.
Back to 2007 forecast. You definitely should pay a close attention to the moments when the most of these projection lines show the same tendency. See here:
We can locate here three intervals where all three projection lines point at the same price movement - two downtrend and two uptrend zones. Outside these zones, we cannot define the certain tendency.
Gold
It looks like for gold another cycles are
more influent. See here
details.
Crude Oil
S&P 500
Euro/USD
