﻿ The thing we can not to forecast

Things we cannot forecast

There are some things that we cannot forecast (IMHO).

1) A projection line helps us to forecast turning points, and users often ask me: Can we forecast price levels?

I believe Larry Williams have answered this question the best way:

One of Timing Solution users asked this question:

When using timing with TS, assuming the timing is accurate to a week/day/hour etc..., what would be the prefered

method to define the forecasted price level?

and Larry Williams have answered it:

I have often thought about this problem of price projection and I think it may well be impossible when we consider the basic premise here is that we are using things that are a derivative of time whether they are cycles or astronomy or whatever they're all about time they are not, with my lack of skills and ability at least, able to predict magnitude.

I also think magnitude really is a function of the news or conditions of the day as we get in to these time periods when we would expect the cyclical up move.

Hopefully somebody will be able to figure out price projections but I think they are extremely difficult to do… Oh they're easy to do… But I mean to be correct. My dear friend Tom demark has about as good of a record as anyone on long-term projections but the ins and outs of every day trading seem to escape most of us.

LW

I'm not even certain we need price targets other than those that we can arrive at technically… Because the idea of trailing stops keeps you in for a very long moves that may go past the projected cyclical high or low. In other words that's where there's a real use for basic technical analysis

end of Larry's post.

I don't know, it seems to me we cannot put in one basket time and price, we cannot forecast them both at the same time.  While we conduct cyclical analysis, we are working under terms of TECHNICAL ANALYSYS, i.e. we assume that all World information is already incorporated in the price, so we could analyze the price and only the price. Till that moment everything works Ok, but then, at some moment, some NEWS comes and smashes out our nice painted picture. We speak now about FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - news, reports...- all external things that shake the stock market. I really do not know how to forecast the reaction (hence the price) to all these events, this is beyond of technical analysis (hence cyclical analysis).

As a possible approach (but not a solution) to this problem, you can use turning points analyzer, it provides high probability price levels like shown on this picture:

It is similar to an electron in the atom that can stay on some specific orbit/energetic level only, and only by emitting energy that electron can jump from one orbit to another (you can read more about this subject here:

I think that the price goes the same way as the electron in the atom: it jumps from one price level to another due to some coming news. News is the same for the price as the/emitted energy for the electron. And we don't know that energy, i.e. a probable reaction on a news that will arrive.

2) We have exactly the same story with invertions ( http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Mini/113/index.htm ): at some moment, the cycle begins working in the inverted mode. I believe this is somehow related to the news as well.

As some hint (but not a solution), you can look at the Moon position diagram from Phenomena module (and maybe the New and the Full Moons), like this one:

Watch the moments there when the Moon enters different signs of Zodiac. Speaking astrologically, these moments correspond to the moments when human mood changes. Accordingly we can expect possible changes in the stock market, immediate or delayed. This is just a hypothesis, nothing else.