Economical and Decimal cycles
Diagrams for most important Economical cycles
I believe the most important for practical usage are Kitchen (40 months cycle), Presidential (4 years cycle), Juglar (9 years) and Decimal cycles. There are other long term cycles like Kondratiev (50-70 years cycle) and Kuznets (20 years cycle) as well. However they are too long.
In Timing Solution it is possible to calculate these cycles. Do not forget that for calculation of these cycles you have to use as long price history as possible. For example, if you calculate Decimal cycle, you need to use at least 2x10=20 years of price history (better 30 years).
To calculate Economical cycles, run Composite module ("Astronomy" button). Click this button:
and choose the cycle:
In the Main Window you can see how this cycle works:
You can define any cycle here choosing this item:
As an example 7.2 year cycle is chosen:
Now I show how you may improve this cycle.
First of all, try to smooth this curve using smoothing orb parameter here:
Second, use committee technique for these cycles clicking this button:
The explanation regarding committee is here: http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Mini/12/
Another variation of cyclic analysis is Annual Decimal cycle. This is a variation of Annual (Seasonal) cycle though it is calculated differently. For example we can calculate the Annual cycle for the year 2009 using NOT ALL available price history but only XXX9 years, like 1999, 1989, 1979 ,,, years.
In order to calculate this kind of cycle, follow these steps:
1). Set parameters that will be used to calculate the regular Annual cycle:
2) Click "Context" button here:
3) Now set "Context" event ("Calendar" tab):
Thus to calculate this projection line the program will use the XXX9 year patterns. All other price history will be ignored.
BTW, in the same manner you can calculate Annual cycle for leap years.
Do not forget that you need to have enough price history to calculate these cycle.
To cancel context calculations click this button:
Diagrams for most important Economical cycles
I have checked all most important economical cycles (+Annual) and have found that now (October 2008) the most working cycle is Annual cycle based on all available Dow Jones Industrial history.
Here it is (the blue curve):
This is Annual cycle based on 219 years price history:
Below you can see all other Economical cycles:
Committee for Presidential cycle:
Committee for Kitchen cycle:
Committee for Juglar cycle:
Committee for Decimal cycle:
Below I put cycles based on monthly Dow Jones data from 1789 year (219 years):
Annual cycle:
Committee for Presidential cycle:
Committee for Kitchen cycle:
Committee for Juglar cycle:
Committee for Decimal cycle:
October, 16 2008
Moscow, Russia